September 07, 2007 11:38 PM UTC

CD-4 Back in Top 10 Nationally...But Should It Be?

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• by: Colorado Pols

According to The Washington Post blog “The Fix”:

So here’s our shot at the top 10 House races in the country today. The contest ranked number one is the most likely to switch parties in 2008. The comments section awaits your kudos and criticisms.

To the Line!

10. Colorado’s 4th District (Currently R): Every election we look at the strong Republican performance of this district and conclude that there is no way Rep. Marilyn Musgrave can lose the seat. And every election she barely manages to win. This time we won’t be fooled. Democrats are heavily targeting this race and Musgrave has proven that she underperforms in this eastern Colorado seat. Angie Paccione, the Democrat who lost to Musgrave by less than 6,000 votes in 2006, is back for another race but faces a serious primary challenge from Betsy Markey, a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar (D-Colo.) Salazar has already endorsed Markey, which could well give her a leg up in the primary. This race shouldn’t be close given the district’s demographics but it will be.

The race in CD-4 will probably be close again, but it’s doubtful that it will be as narrowly-decided as it was when Musgrave edged Paccione last fall. 2006 was probably the Democrats’ best chance to win this seat.

Musgrave has worked hard to change her image after national Republicans finally soured on spending so much money to defend a seat that should be safely Republican. There are still 57,000 more registered Republicans in CD-4 than Democrats, and a softer, more moderate Musgrave is going to be a lot tougher to knock off than she was this time last year. A rational Republican should never lose in this Republican district, and there’s no denying that Musgrave has gotten good press lately for her change of face.

In 2006 it looked like Democrats had a great chance to pull the upset here. That’s just not the case anymore, especially when Democrats are going to spend a lot of money just trying to get through a primary.